AGP Executive Report

Copper: UBS calls copper a high-conviction theme as electrification and data-center demand outpace supply. A strike at Chile’s Centinela mine could further tighten the market. Energy Investment: Grenergy secured $460 million to finance a 446MW solar-plus-storage portfolio in Chile, while Guyana is pressing for stronger regional energy planning and cooperation. Growth Outlook: The World Bank sees Latin America and the Caribbean growing 2.2% in 2026; Guyana is forecast to expand 23.7%, sharpening focus on how its oil wealth is managed. Digital Finance: Coinbase and Gennius plan to bring ONED USD stablecoin access to Latin American banks, as SoFi, Orbi and Mastercard prepare a crypto-linked card in Mexico. Brazil Markets: The October 25 runoff is keeping investors alert to a potential shift in Brazil’s policy direction and asset outlook.

Digital Finance: Coinbase and Gennius plan to bring a USDC-backed stablecoin and related services to Latin American banks, starting in Argentina, with payments, custody and Visa card spending among the planned features. Brazil Markets: Flávio Bolsonaro edged Lula in the first round, leaving investors watching the Oct. 25 runoff; Lula’s government has cut fuel taxes and expanded subsidies ahead of the vote. Energy Investment: Grenergy secured US$460 million to finance a 446MW solar-plus-storage portfolio in Chile, while the World Bank warned drought could threaten hydropower and force a shift to costlier fossil fuels. Regional Outlook: The World Bank projects 2.2% growth for Latin America and the Caribbean in 2026. A new Peru–El Salvador business pact aims to connect companies through investment deals, trade missions and a binational franchise desk.

Digital Finance: Coinbase and Gennius plan to bring a USDC-backed stablecoin and related services to Latin American banks, starting in Argentina. Separately, SoFi, Orbi and Mastercard are preparing a crypto-linked card for Mexico, adding to the region’s push into digital-dollar payments. Brazil Markets: Lula’s government cut fuel taxes and expanded subsidies ahead of the Oct. 25 runoff, a voter-focused move whose fiscal impact investors will watch. Foreign investors have also poured a record R$10 billion into Brazilian stocks. Chile Energy: JPMorgan warned that a strike at a major copper mine could significantly dent production, putting supply risks in focus. Clean Energy Investment: Grenergy secured US$460 million to finance a 446-megawatt solar-and-storage portfolio in Chile. Regional Outlook: The World Bank projects 2.2% growth for Latin America and the Caribbean in 2026, while noting stronger growth is possible.

Chile Financing: Grenergy secured US$460 million for solar-plus-storage projects, part of a wider financing package that brings its Chilean non-recourse funding above US$2.4 billion. Paraguay Investment: JPMorgan’s Southern Cone chief pointed to energy, forestry and infrastructure as promising areas for private capital, citing the country’s stability and low-cost hydropower. Regional Outlook: The World Bank forecasts 2.2% growth across Latin America and the Caribbean in 2026, warning that debt, high borrowing costs and energy-price volatility could weigh on investment. Brazil Markets: After Flávio Bolsonaro edged Lula in the first-round vote, Brazil’s five-year credit-default swap spread fell 22 basis points to 108, as investors weigh whether the rally can last. Fintech: Latin America’s fintech sector has expanded 340% in six years, with Brazil’s Pix and digital banking helping drive adoption.

Venezuela Energy: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez says the government is negotiating 44 new energy agreements as it seeks to widen strategic partnerships and attract investment. Colombia and the IMF: Bogotá is seeking $8 billion to $20 billion in support, but a fiscal deficit projected at 7.2% of GDP this year and 9.4% next year could complicate negotiations. Digital Finance: SoFi Tech Solutions, Orbi and Mastercard are developing a Mexico card that lets users spend crypto, converted to pesos or other fiat at checkout. The partners say the launch could pave the way for stablecoin payments and remittances. Regional Outlook: The World Bank sees Latin America and the Caribbean growing 2.2% in 2026, but country prospects diverge; Guyana is forecast to expand 23.7%, while stronger policy and investment are lifting several economies. Brazil Markets: The presidential runoff is shaping investor bets after Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round showing helped drive a rally in Brazilian stocks and the real. Copa Holdings: September passenger traffic rose 17.1% year over year, outpacing a 15.7% capacity increase and lifting the load factor to 87.9%.

Payments: dLocal is enabling local-currency card payments for LinkedIn users in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia and Chile. A separate Gr4vy-Unlimit deal adds regional options including Pix, Mercado Pago and OXXO for global merchants. Brazil Markets: Stocks and the real rallied after Flávio Bolsonaro’s strong first-round showing. Investors are watching for runoff policy signals; the World Bank also raised its 2026 growth forecast for Brazil. Growth Outlook: The World Bank projects 2.2% growth across Latin America and the Caribbean in 2026, with Guyana forecast to expand 23.7% and Panama more than 4%. Trade: Mexico’s auto exports fell 12% year over year in September, their steepest decline this year, as US tariffs and uncertainty weigh on the sector. Monetary Policy: Trinidad and Tobago economist Dave Seerattan urged policymakers to retain the managed exchange-rate regime, citing low inflation, sustainable debt, strong foreign-exchange buffers and a well-regulated banking sector. Digital Investment: Chile’s 2026–36 digital plan targets US$2 billion in telecom investment by 2030 and aims to build the country into a regional hub.

Brazil Markets: Stocks surged after Flávio Bolsonaro’s strong first-round showing, with the Ibovespa hitting a record 206,000. Investors are weighing whether the rally can continue as the October runoff approaches and policy details remain unclear. Venezuela Financing: Qatar is reportedly preparing a fund to clear Venezuela’s $2.5 billion in overdue IDB debt, potentially restoring access to as much as $8 billion in lending for infrastructure and other needs. Growth Outlook: The World Bank projects Guyana’s economy will expand 23.7% in 2026, while Panama is forecast to grow 4.2%; Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to average 2.2%. The Bank cautions that Guyana must ensure oil wealth benefits the wider population. Startup Funding: Latin American founders relocating to Tulsa are seeking fresh capital; Argentine startup Bioeutectics says it secured $4 million after moving to the U.S. city.

Brazil Markets: Stocks and the real rallied after Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round lead, but investors still await details of his economic plans before the Oct. 25 runoff. Growth Outlook: The World Bank projects 2.2% growth for Latin America and the Caribbean in 2026; Colombia is forecast to grow 2.3%, ahead of Brazil at 2.1% and Mexico at 1.4%. Guyana remains an outlier, with oil-led growth forecast at 23.7%, alongside a warning to ensure the boom benefits the wider population. Trade: Brazil cut its 2026 trade-surplus forecast by more than $5 billion to $84.4 billion as export expectations weakened, though that would still top last year’s surplus by 24%. Digital Banking: Colombia’s Bre-B instant-payment system has seen faster first-year adoption than Brazil’s Pix, highlighting the region’s fast-moving payments competition.

Brazil Election Shock for Markets: Brazil’s Ibovespa surged above 200,000 as Flávio Bolsonaro beat Lula in the first round, setting up an Oct. 25 runoff; UBS hosted Ideia Big Data and put Bolsonaro’s odds at 85%, while investors now watch whether any fiscal plan can back the rally. World Bank Growth Call: The World Bank projects Latin America and the Caribbean growth at 2.2% in 2026, with El Salvador and Paraguay outperforming on security, fiscal consolidation and private investment, while El Niño and energy-price swings stay key risks. El Niño Hits Food and Finance: UNICEF warns 347M children face threats from a potentially record El Niño, and commodity exporters brace for crop stress, higher freight costs and a shifting US trade picture. Central Banks Keep Buying Gold: Reserve managers say gold is evolving into a strategic hedge beyond inflation, with diversification and geopolitics driving demand even if official buying slows. Stablecoin Dealmaking: First Digital signed a definitive deal to combine with Nasdaq-listed KOYN, aiming to take FDUSD’s agentic-economy push public in 2027. Argentina Security Funding: Argentina announced $13.35M in US security financing, underscoring deeper Washington ties—and the question of how much strategic independence remains. AI Adoption in the Region: World Bank notes a median 17% of working-age adults in the region use generative AI, but the main bottleneck is “absorptive capacity,” not access.

Brazil Election: Flávio Bolsonaro won Brazil’s first round and will face Lula in a runoff on Oct. 25, a result that could shift Brazil’s stance toward the US while keeping China’s economic footprint largely intact. Stablecoin Push in LatAm: OKX launched OKX Money, a standalone app that converts 50+ local currencies into dollar-backed stablecoins (USDG/USDC/USDT), offers up to 10% APY on eligible USDG, and pairs it with virtual/physical Mastercard cards for cross-border spending and transfers. Credit Upgrade Watch: Fitch affirmed Paraguay at BB+ with a positive outlook, citing strong growth, lower public debt and easing inflation—one step from investment grade. LatAm Tech & Connectivity: FLOLIVE and Skylo unveiled integrated cellular + satellite IoT connectivity for Brazil, aiming to keep devices online in areas with weak or no cellular coverage. E-commerce Investor Angle: MercadoLibre shares slid despite faster revenue growth; one Wall Street bull argues a rebound is possible, but margins and profit pressure remain key risks. Telecom Expansion: Chunghwa Telecom set up a Guatemala unit to expand across Central and South America.

Brazil Election Shock for Markets: Flávio Bolsonaro beat Lula in Brazil’s first round, setting up an Oct. 25 runoff; the surprise outcome helped drive Brazil’s biggest one-day stock rally in years and a sharp real rebound. Digital Finance & Remittances: Bitso says it processed 14.7% of US-to-Mexico remittances in Jan–Aug 2026, highlighting growth in its B2B payments unit. Media M&A in LatAm: Banijay Entertainment reorganized after its All3Media merger, splitting operations into Banijay America (Ben Samek) and Banijay Latin America (Laurens Drillich). Carbon Markets Push: Peru’s environment ministry expects $250m for 12 carbon projects via Article 6 deals with Switzerland and Singapore, aiming for 8.4m tonnes of CO2e reductions by 2030. US-LatAm Security Ties: The US redirected $52m in military aid originally for Slovakia to Colombia, Ecuador, Panama and Peru, drawing political backlash at home. Energy & Risk Watch: A report on cyber threats at a Fortinet summit underscores rising ransomware pressure across Canada and the skills gap facing critical infrastructure.

Brazil Election Runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro stunned pollsters with 47% vs Lula’s 45% in the first round, setting up an Oct. 25 runoff that could deepen Brazil’s rightward shift and reshape ties with the U.S. and markets. Banking Risk Watch: Brazil’s Banco Master-linked losses could rival or exceed Madoff/FTX levels, with a Bahamas forensic team now involved in protecting assets tied to the alleged collapse. Mobile Connectivity & Policy: MTN CEO Ralph Mupita was re-elected to the GSMA board for 2027–2028, pushing for investment and closing Africa’s connectivity gaps as AI spreads. Energy Deals in Venezuela: Baker Hughes signed agreements with PDVSA and partners to restore Venezuela’s natural gas infrastructure and build a path toward LNG commercialization. Environmental Law Push: A new Latin America “ecocide” model law targets severe environmental destruction with potential criminal liability for senior decision-makers. Commodities & Inflation: Goldman says a U.S. diesel export ban would hit Latin America most and could turn inflationary for U.S. consumers after storage runs out. Mining Finance Platform: Saudi Arabia will host FMF 2027 in Riyadh, spotlighting funding and faster project development across minerals value chains, including Latin America.

Brazil Election Runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro edged Lula in Brazil’s first round but fell short of 50%, setting up a 25 October runoff; the surprise result is already reshaping expectations for the real, rates, and risk appetite across Latin America. Geopolitics & Institutions: Brazil’s Federal Police opened an investigation into alleged US interference in election-related institutions, adding another layer of uncertainty for investors watching policy continuity. Housing Pressure in LatAm: The IDB says the region’s housing deficit is driven mostly by poor conditions and lack of services, estimating a $1.4tn investment need and calling for more private capital. Connectivity Investment: EllaLink launched its Caribbean Gateway initiative, moving from design to committed funding with service targeted for end-2029—an infrastructure tailwind for telecom and digital finance. Market Watch—Brazil/LatAm Tech: Investors are weighing MercadoLibre’s steadier revenue momentum versus Coupang’s slower pattern, while Netflix and Nike headlines remind markets that earnings guidance can quickly flip sentiment. Energy & Shipping: Reports flag tighter crude availability and medium-heavy grade scarcity, with potential knock-ons for tanker demand and regional refining economics.

Brazil Election Watch: Brazilians vote Sunday in a tight, highly polarized presidential race between leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with neither expected to clear the 50% first-round threshold and an Oct. 25 runoff likely; the campaign has centered on corruption, public finances, crime and alleged US meddling, and the outcome could reshape Brazil’s trade and security posture. Argentina Auto Shift: Buenos Aires hosts its first Chinese auto show as Argentina’s market opens further under Milei, with Chinese brands gaining share after a tariff-free allowance for up to 50,000 EVs and hybrids in 2026. Panama–Vietnam Ties: Panama’s President José Raúl Mulino’s Vietnam trip is framed as a historic step to deepen cooperation in trade, logistics, investment and tourism. Latam Crypto Crime: A new report says Latin American criminal groups are using crypto mining and fintech networks to launder illicit funds, raising pressure for faster digital-asset freezes and tighter oversight. Energy & Climate in the Region: A Caribbean solar report warns policy bottlenecks are slowing renewables despite faster panel deployment, keeping the region exposed to costly fossil-fuel imports.

Brazil Election Countdown: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro closed campaigns Saturday in a tight, scandal-heavy race that polls say is too close to call for Sunday’s first round, with both framing the vote as a referendum on Brazil’s sovereignty amid U.S. pressure. Argentina Golden Passport: Milei’s government unveiled a “citizenship by investment” plan offering passports for $350,000 cash or an $800,000 seven-year bond, with family add-ons—aimed at pulling in hard currency as Argentina’s debt clock ticks toward 2027. Venezuela Energy-Politics: A new analysis argues Caracas and Washington are moving toward “normalization” through tactical concessions tied to oil and geopolitical limits, keeping sovereignty debates front and center. Cuba Fuel Shock: Reporting highlights how a U.S. oil blockade is worsening Cuba’s crisis, hitting irrigation and food production as fuel shortages keep tourists away. LatAm Investment & Infrastructure: Haiti’s transport forum in Miami pushed investor-ready projects and governance reforms, while UN ODET urged safer, sustainable financing for digital public infrastructure across the region.

Argentina Golden Passport: Javier Milei’s government will launch a “citizenship by investment” program in Q4 2026, offering citizenship for a $350,000 non-refundable Treasury contribution or a $800,000 government bond (plus extra fees for spouses and children), with a “rigorous” security and financial-system review. Digital Infrastructure Governance: UN ODET urged Latin America and the Caribbean to bake safeguards, oversight, data protection, and sustainable financing into digital public infrastructure from day one. Guatemala Crime-Finance Shift: Guatemala’s updated anti–money laundering and terrorist-financing law pushes enforcement toward tracing and dismantling criminal financial structures, aligning more closely with FATF/GAFILAT. Energy Markets: The G7 plans to release 100 million barrels of oil products, starting with diesel, after record fuel prices—an action that could ripple into Latin American costs and supply chains. Brazil Election Watch: With Brazil voting Oct. 4, the race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro is tightening amid heightened security concerns, including US consular service suspensions. Uruguay Water Investment: Uruguay reached financial close on a $305m metropolitan drinking-water expansion, backed by CAF and private equity, as part of a broader water and sanitation push.