AGP Executive Report

Telecom Competition Push (Dominican Republic): President Luis Abinader backed new telecom competitors, arguing the sector is effectively a duopoly (about 95% market control) with prices ~22% above the Latin America average—aiming to spur investment, better service, and lower consumer costs. AI & Fintech Expansion (Latin America): Blend expanded into Brazil to move enterprise AI from pilots to production, while Ant International’s embedded-credit push entered Brazil to serve SMBs and gig workers; UiPath said Banco Azteca scaled orchestration across thousands of processes. Banking Infrastructure (Mexico): Banco Azteca’s automation upgrade highlights how banks are modernizing operations and governance at scale. Energy Storage Financing (Poland/Europe): Greenvolt secured €153m bridge facilities plus a €65m guarantee from UniCredit for large BESS projects—relevant for regional grid-flexibility investment trends. Ports & Trade Links (Ecuador): DP World launched a new AX4 direct Asia service at Posorja to cut reliance on transshipment and improve transit times for exporters. Market Access & Growth (Panama): New research and rankings keep positioning Panama as a top investment migration and regional business gateway. Capital Markets (Chile/Argentina): Astra Exploration upgraded to OTCQX Best Market, boosting visibility for U.S. investors.

Monetary Policy Watch: Colombia’s central bank chief Leonardo Villar says inflation is on track to near the 3% target by mid-2028, but warns demand is outpacing production and fiscal deterioration makes the job harder. Fiscal Risk: In the same debate, Colombia’s finance vice-minister said it’s not feasible to quickly return to the fiscal rule after a 2025 suspension. Brazil Debt Dynamics: Brazil’s Treasury flagged a worsening public-debt profile, with Selic-linked debt projected to hit a record 53% this year as floating-rate exposure rises. Cybersecurity & Defense: EDGE and Brazil’s Army will set up a Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence under a tripartite government-industry-academia model, aiming to boost sovereign cyber capacity. Regulation & Data: Brazil fined TikTok’s parent ByteDance for serious LGPD breaches involving children’s data, including weak age checks and continued processing via “guest sessions.” Venezuela Currency Debate: Opposition lawmaker Antonio Ecarri backed a dollarization plan advised by US economist Steve Hanke, targeting devaluation and wage erosion. Energy/Water Infrastructure: Baja California allocated 1.6bn pesos for desalination project interconnections to supply treated water to the Tijuana-Rosarito-Ensenada region. Investment/Markets: WHG is creating a local equities unit inside its asset management arm to attract talent and position for the next cycle.

LatAm Banking & Capital Markets: Scotiabank beat estimates on capital markets and its international unit, adding to the week’s signals that deal activity and wealth management are holding up despite volatility. FX & Rates Watch: The “super peso” is back—and it’s starting to hurt, a reminder that currency strength can squeeze exporters and complicate inflation and rate expectations. Energy & Infrastructure: Halliburton won an integrated contract from bp for the first appraisal campaign in Brazil’s deepwater Bumerangue field, while AngloGold Ashanti restarted a Brazilian plant to process all local gold concentrate domestically, supported by 105m reais in investment. Payments & Fintech: Miracle Pay partnered with zerohash to let U.S. merchants accept stablecoin payments, pointing to faster on-chain settlement moving into mainstream commerce. AI in Health (LMIC focus): Qure.ai named Mihir Bhanushali EVP, Global Health, to expand AI healthcare across Africa and Latin America, targeting TB/HIV and frontline delivery. Retail Expansion: H&M appointed a general manager for its Argentina entry, with the first store planned for 2027.

Public Health Overhaul: Dominican Republic’s National Health Service chief launched a maternity-hospital tour, demanding “zero tolerance” for preventable maternal and infant deaths and tighter emergency protocols. Port Decarbonization: Peru’s Port of Callao became the first in South America to offer shore power (“cold ironing”), cutting CO2 and port-city air pollution, backed by DP World’s major infrastructure push. Airline Financing: LATAM secured $505m financing for 11 aircraft deliveries (A320neo, A321neo and E195-E2), with sustainability-linked terms tied to emissions intensity. Trade & Policy: Mexico’s top diplomat said Mexico is committed to restarting stalled FTA talks with South Korea, with AI and space cooperation on the agenda. Currency Watch: Reuters reports Mexico’s “super peso” has surged past 17 per dollar, boosting returns but squeezing exporter margins. Agrifood Investment Push: FAO urged stronger, coordinated agrifood-system investment across Latin America and the Caribbean, citing hunger and limited access to formal finance. Media & Sports Spending: Prime Video plans to invest over $2bn in Latin America from 2027-2030, expanding local originals and NBA and other live sports rights. Energy & Sovereign Risk: Venezuela oil output hit 1.23m bpd, the highest since 2019, after easing U.S. sanctions and legal reforms opening the sector to private investment.

Banking & Markets: Mexico’s sovereign debt is trading “like junk” after a Pemex bailout push of about $130B, with Moody’s pressure keeping the country near speculative-grade territory and raising the stakes for investors. Energy Finance: JPMorgan and Santander are set to lead a fundraising drive for Argentina LNG that could reach $15B, with a final investment decision targeted for November as the project eyes Vaca Muerta gas. Oil & Risk: Shell has paused its Aphrodite offshore gas project in Trinidad after talks with the national gas company stalled on commercial terms, a setback for the country’s LNG and petrochem plans. Digital Assets & Capital Markets: Franklin Templeton expanded access to its tokenized U.S. government liquidity fund in Asia via HashKey Exchange in Hong Kong for professional investors. Macro & Reconstruction: ECLAC says earthquake reconstruction in Venezuela and Colombia could provide a modest lift in 2027, but financing and project execution will decide how much. Payments Innovation: Stablecoin card spending topped $1B in July and could hit $50B annually by 2028, driven by broader adoption and cross-border use. Trade & Investment: Hong Kong-Peru’s free trade agreement is set to enter into force on September 1, covering goods, services, investment and e-commerce. Infrastructure & Telecom: SES remains bullish on DTH renewals into the next decade, even as streaming reshapes demand patterns.

Energy & LNG: Shell has cancelled its Aphrodite offshore gas project in Trinidad after negotiations with the state gas aggregator, NGC, failed on commercial terms—Shell is releasing a contracted jack-up rig, a setback for Trinidad’s push to reverse declining gas output that has weighed on LNG exports and petrochemicals. Media & AI Copyright: Argentina’s Editorial Perfil has sued OpenAI and Microsoft, alleging unauthorized use of its journalism to train AI systems and seeking accountability for copyright infringement and unfair competition. Digital Payments & Crypto Rails: Chilean startup Kapso raised $1.4M to make it easier for developers to integrate the official WhatsApp Business API across Latin America, while Paybis expanded local crypto payment methods including Brazil’s PIX and Chile’s Webpay. Public Finance & Health: Barbados plans a $1.2B debt-for-social swap to fund non-communicable disease programs, including childhood obesity. Connectivity & Education (El Salvador): El Salvador is boosting education spending to $3B (over 8% of GDP) and moving ahead on its first submarine fiber cable feasibility/design work to expand bandwidth. Policy & Regulation (Plastic): A leaked U.S. memo says Washington will oppose global plastic production limits at UN treaty talks, arguing for national security carve-outs and stronger waste-management focus. Banking/Markets: A Fireblocks survey finds most financial institutions are funding digital-asset initiatives, but only about 16% have anything live in production.

Dominican Republic FDI Outlook: Central Bank governor Héctor Valdez Albizu expects foreign direct investment to hit $5.3B in 2026, after $3.27B in the first half, citing stronger tourism, remittances, exports and a firmer peso. Public Debt Watch (Bahamian MOF): The Bahamas’ Ministry of Finance reported outstanding public sector debt at $14.7B at end-June, up $1.2B year-on-year, with central government debt rising and external creditor exposure increasing. IDB x Japan Financing Boost: The IDB Group and JICA expanded their partnership to $14B in financing for Latin America and the Caribbean, adding focus on critical minerals and agriculture plus health support. Corporate Moves in Brazil: Volaris Group agreed to acquire L5 Networks, expanding cloud communications and recurring-revenue capabilities in Brazil. Americas Logistics Leadership: ECS Group appointed Eric St Amand as COO Americas to oversee operations across North America, Latin America and the Caribbean. Tech + Infrastructure (Chile/Antarctica): Chile finalized a feasibility study for an Antarctica fiber-optic cable, backed by CAF and China’s MCDF, aiming for real-time scientific data. AI Governance Risk: A Chromatics AI report warns Western cultural bias in AI could shape how billions interpret the world, especially in education and legal guidance.

Critical Minerals & Sovereignty: A new Al-Attiyah Foundation paper says Gulf states are ramping up international mining, processing and trading in copper, lithium, cobalt and rare earths—Africa is the main destination, while Latin America gets more selective interest as supply chains concentrate and demand rises. Growth Watch: ECLAC holds Latin America’s 2026 growth forecast at 2.2%, warning the pace is too weak to lift living standards and close development gaps. Trade & Investment Links: India and Chile are pushing ahead on a wider free-trade deal (CEPA talks), with market access and critical minerals the key sticking points as trade climbs. Banking/Finance Flows: Fund managers rotated toward financials in Q2 as rates stayed higher, with emerging-market banks and fintechs like Nu Holdings drawing attention. Venezuela Mobility: Caracas Metro restored full commercial service after Tropical Wave 40 flooding, though Metrocable lines remain temporarily closed for maintenance. US Court Impacting LatAm: A New York federal judge vacated a Trump policy that suspended immigrant visa processing for 75 countries, including several in Latin America.

India–Chile trade push: India’s Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal will visit Chile (Aug 24–28) to clear hurdles on market access and critical minerals as talks move toward a wider CEPA, building on a PTA launched in 2006; Auto exports: Mahindra unveiled its “Scorpio Lifestyler” pickup for India (launch Apr 2027) and plans to market it as “Lifestyler” abroad, targeting South Africa, Australia, West Asia and Latin America; Rare earths & risk: Brazil is accelerating rare-earth exploration with heavy foreign participation, but environmental and Indigenous concerns are rising as mining permits surge; U.S. visa ruling with LatAm impact: A New York federal judge vacated a Trump-era 75-country immigrant visa suspension, potentially reopening case-by-case processing for applicants including from Brazil, Colombia and Uruguay; Argentina AI pitch: Argentina is positioning itself as a Latin America AI hub via deregulation, incentives and connectivity upgrades, including Starlink for rural schools; Cuba defense focus: President Díaz-Canel inspected local defense preparedness as Cuba advances reforms tied to urban resilience.

US Courts & Immigration: A New York federal judge vacated the Trump-era “75-country” immigrant visa suspension, ruling it was “contrary to law” and beyond Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s authority, and reaffirming that consular officers must decide eligibility case-by-case. Latin America Growth Watch: ECLAC projects Panama growth at 4.4% in 2026 and 4.6% in 2027, while warning the region’s overall pace remains too slow to close development gaps. Dominican Republic Investment: J.P. Morgan signaled it wants to expand in the Dominican Republic after strong growth and moderating inflation, citing GDP growth around 4.5% for 2026. Tech & Infrastructure in Argentina: Argentina will award Starlink a contract for connectivity to 6,000 rural schools for at least three years, but critics are questioning the lack of a public bidding process. Energy & Finance Risk: Cybersecurity firms flagged new banking trojans, including Grandoreiro, still targeting users in Latin America. Caribbean Capital Readiness: A new financing analysis says Caribbean firms often lack the revenue, equity and documentation needed to unlock institutional capital. Cartel Money Laundering: Cambodia-U.S. investigators say they uncovered crypto laundering tied to Mexico’s Sinaloa cartel, with about $7m in crypto seized.

Banking & Regulation: Brazil’s Itaú Bank won a U.S. charter from the OCC, setting up a Miami base to serve high- and ultra-high-net-worth clients tied to Brazil and Latin America, with initial capital of at least $507m. Cybersecurity: Researchers flagged banking trojans Manic and Grandoreiro, with Grandoreiro still targeting users in Latin America as malware operators push phishing and remote takeover tactics. Energy & Infrastructure: Trinidad and Tobago’s state gas company NGC says it “was broken” when a new board took over in July 2025, then delivered a turnaround—profit after tax rose to $3.46bn in 2025 and operating costs fell by over $500m within six months. Trade & Markets: Mexico’s cattle exports to the U.S. resume Aug. 24 after a screwworm-driven ban, but shipments will face tight restrictions to prevent spread. Commodities & Investment: Brazil’s rare-earth rush is accelerating as foreign-backed applications surge, though environmental and Indigenous concerns are rising. Food & Risk: A new global outlook warns food inflation could worsen into 2027 as shipping disruptions, El Niño risks, and higher energy and fertilizer costs hit emerging economies, including across Latin America. Development Finance: BII and South Africa’s PIC are co-investing to scale development finance in Africa, aiming to deploy billions over 2026-2031.

Banking & Cross-Border Expansion: The U.S. OCC approved Itaú Bank’s charter to operate in the United States, with the new Miami-based unit targeting high- and ultra-high-net-worth clients tied to Brazil and Latin America. AI in Supervision: Brazil’s central bank says it spends R$3.6m a year to run AI-heavy monitoring, including a system that can review millions of loan exposures in a day. Energy & Markets: Mexico’s crude exports are stuck near historic lows, leaving Pemex revenue up but not enough to restore Mexico’s role as a reliable crude supplier as global prices rise. Food Inflation Risk: JPMorgan warns a mix of shipping disruption and El Niño could lift global food inflation, with Latin America among the most exposed regions. Investment Regime Watch: Argentina’s RIGI has drawn nearly $199bn in proposed projects, but most capital is still concentrated in oil, gas, mining and lithium/copper. Media & Content Spending: Prime Video plans to invest over $2bn in Latin America through 2030 to expand originals and sports rights. Regional Growth: ECLAC projects the Dominican Republic among the fastest-growing economies in 2026, while the region’s overall growth cools. Tech & Consumer Demand: Smartphone shipments in Latin America fell 10% in Q2 2026, though Apple held up better than peers.

Latin America Macro: ECLAC cut its 2026 growth forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean to 2.2%, citing a tougher external environment, tighter financial conditions and inflation pressure, with a partial rebound to 2.5% in 2027. Dominican Energy Finance: White & Case advised a bank consortium on a US$902.3m senior secured project financing for the Manzanillo LNG-to-power scheme in the Dominican Republic, backing 840 MW of combined-cycle capacity. El Salvador Connectivity: CAF launched a call for studies to build El Salvador’s first submarine cable, aiming to reduce reliance on terrestrial internet operators. OpenAI in Brazil: OpenAI officially launched business operations in Brazil, strengthening its local push as ChatGPT usage grows. Prime Video Spend: Prime Video will invest $2bn+ in Latin America from 2027-2030 across originals and live sports, including Mexico’s national team rights. AI Hardware in Brazil: Brazil plans two AI supercomputers funded via the national science fund—one with Huawei/iFlytek and another expected via a Nvidia-led tender—explicitly to avoid dependence on a single supplier. Tech & Trade: J&T Express reported H1 2026 profit up 124% to $350.6m, with parcel volume jumping 119.9% in Latin America. Energy/Climate Risk: El Niño is worsening Panama Canal congestion and could feed through to consumer prices across supply chains. Security Watch: South Africa uncovered a major crystal meth lab near Zimbabwe, arresting two Mexicans and others, pointing to Latin American cartel expansion concerns.

AI & Chips Race: Brazil will invest about 2.3 billion reais ($444m) to expand its AI ecosystem, splitting funding between a Huawei/iFlytek-backed supercomputing push in Rio and a separate tender for a new machine in Rio Grande do Norte, with Nvidia expected to be a key contender. Insurance M&A: Marco Capital (PoloWorks’ parent) agreed to acquire Pro Global, aiming to build a larger legacy insurance and services platform across Lloyd’s and international markets, pending regulators. Argentina Macro: Argentina’s June economic activity rose 2.7% year-on-year, with mining and agriculture among the biggest contributors, and the year-to-date expansion reaching 1.9%. Banking & Markets: Liberty Latin America director John Malone bought about 50,696 shares via a charitable trust arrangement, adding to his already sizable stake. Infrastructure: Guarulhos, Brazil’s largest city without metro service, is set for its first underground rail link as the Hebe Camargo TBM completes delivery and excavation is slated for late 2026. Migration Policy: Liberia began receiving a first group of 20 deportees from the U.S., with up to 1,200 expected over 12 months, including many from Latin America, under a $5m U.S. migration-management package. Tech/Startups: Colombia’s Madbricks launched “Mexican Ninja,” a new indie game blending Narcos and Yakuza themes, after years building titles for major publishers.

Brazil Banking & Fintech: Brazil’s big banks are still harvesting high rates, but Nubank and Pix are steadily eroding the old moat, even as credit growth and profits hold up. Mexico Macro & Markets: Colombia declares an economic emergency after a 7.4 quake, while Mexico weighs more trade curbs and tariffs on Chinese goods—raising uncertainty for investors watching USMCA talks. Venezuela Energy: Venezuela’s oil recovery is moving from politics to operations, with new production participation deals and a sharp jump in crude flowing to US refineries. Colombia Fiscal Shock: Colombia’s 30-day emergency lets the new government issue tax and spending rules without Congress to fund quake response, testing already fragile public finances. Insurance Deal: Marco Capital agreed to acquire Pro Global to build a larger specialist insurance services group across Lloyd’s and international markets. Energy Storage & Infrastructure: AerFin expands Boeing 777 parts stock in Miami for Americas operators, while Harmony Energy energises a UK BESS project and Capital Dynamics buys a 170MW long-duration storage project in Ireland. Tech & Policy: World Bank appoints a Trinidad and Tobago country manager, and Ali warns Caribbean broadcasters not to let AI replace editorial judgment.

Haiti Elections Readiness: Japan and the OAS signed a $3M deal to expand Haiti’s biometric ID system, issuing 350,000 new cards and updating the electoral registry ahead of Dec. 13 polls. Disaster Response & Security: The U.S. will send a hospital ship to Peru’s Pacific coast in Feb. 2027 to help manage El Niño impacts, while the U.S. Southern Command announced new operations targeting drug-trafficking networks across Colombia and Ecuador. Colombia Aid Friction: Colombia’s right-wing president faced criticism for politicizing earthquake aid, with delays and hurdles affecting foreign rescue teams. Crypto & Payments: Bitget Wallet launched a global creator affiliate program offering up to 60% commission on trading plus rebates tied to card spending. Demographics Meets Investing: Economists argue global fertility has likely slipped below replacement, with investors already repricing demographic risk into returns. Venezuela Energy Deals: Texas-based SLB and Hunt Oil signed early contracts with PDVSA as Washington pushes renewed oil investment. Business & Markets: AGCO cut Q2 profit sharply and lowered its outlook; BMS agreed to sell its U.S. reinsurance unit to Willis Re.