AGP Executive Report

Stablecoin & Tokenization Push: Tether is investing $20M in Brazil’s Mercado Bitcoin to expand on-chain payments, lending, tokenized offerings and capital markets, backing a regulated platform that says it serves 4.5M users and has issued over R$2B in tokenized assets. Airline Stress Test (Argentina): Flybondi’s schedule appears to diverge from reality, with reports of days without flights and aircraft availability tightening amid supplier disputes and rising financial pressure. Tourism Cooling (Mexico & Puerto Rico): Cancun airport traffic fell 4.7% in the first half and Puerto Rico’s San Juan saw June passengers down 4.6%, signaling softer travel demand after record runs. Crypto Trading Utility (DeFi): Ondo Finance lets eligible users use tokenized stocks as collateral for perpetual futures, extending tokenized real-world assets into active trading. Bolivia-U.S. Reset: Bolivia’s new conservative government says it wants closer ties with the U.S. as protests and blockades strain the economy. Higher-Ed AI Gap: New surveys show students adopt AI faster than schools respond, with Latin America lagging on AI literacy training. Venezuela Relief via Music: Gustavo Dudamel and the LA Phil plan an Aug. 23 Hollywood Bowl benefit concert to support earthquake recovery.

Mexico Market Entry: MLA Legal and Consulting flags that companies entering Mexico’s regulated sectors need early planning on product classification, permitted claims, distribution setup, consumer-protection rules, and contract alignment—especially in areas like life sciences, pharma, wellness, food, alcohol, and real estate. Latin America Investment Watch: UNCTAD says global FDI rebounded 6% in 2025 to $1.6T, but the recovery is “limited, fragile and uneven,” with most inflows concentrated in a small set of countries and mega-projects. Regional Capital Concentration: For Latin America and the Caribbean, FDI inflows rose 14% to $188B, yet the rebound is highly concentrated—top recipients account for nearly all inflows—raising questions about whether it builds productive capacity. Venezuela Earthquake Response: Venezuela requested UNDP support for housing reconstruction after the June double earthquake left over 17,000 families homeless. Fintech in Focus: Thought Machine says revenue crossed $100M in 2025 and it’s expanding in the Americas, including Latin America adoption of its core banking platform. Mexico Banking Investment: Nubank founder David Vélez met President Claudia Sheinbaum, outlining an estimated $4.2B investment plan for Mexico from 2026–2030. Cuba Power Crisis: An island-wide blackout deepened Cuba’s grid collapse, worsening shortages and daily life disruptions.

Caribbean Aviation & Regional Funding: Antigua and Barbuda approved a US$10 rise in its passenger head tax to US$50, earmarking extra revenue for regional aviation safety and the Eastern Caribbean judicial system, while keeping CARICOM travel exempt. Venezuela Earthquake Relief via Finance & Philanthropy: Gustavo Dudamel’s final Hollywood Bowl concert will be rebranded “A Concert for Venezuela,” with donations supporting earthquake recovery in partnership with UNDP and the Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean. Latin America Markets & Investing: A new note argues international diversification is back in favor as dollar weakness and narrowing growth gaps improve the case for non-US allocations. Crypto & Corporate Treasuries: Brazil’s OranjeBTC added 8 more Bitcoin, lifting holdings to 3,904 BTC and reinforcing its “Bitcoin-on-balance-sheet” strategy. Peru Digital Assets Adoption: Peru’s active crypto users reportedly doubled to over 1 million in two years, helped by fintech payment habits and a growing central bank digital-asset push. AI Infrastructure in Mexico: Bleeding Edge launched an Nvidia Blackwell-based “AI Factory” neocloud in Querétaro, claiming contracted capacity for training and inference services. Logistics Tech Deal: Descartes agreed to buy Chile-based last-mile platform Drivin for $30 million to expand AI-driven routing and dispatch capabilities across Latin America. Peru Politics & Risk: Commentary warns Keiko Fujimori’s win inherits deep institutional and security crises, with political instability framed as a major near-term risk for investors.

Latin America Tech & Payments: Thought Machine says it has crossed $100m in annual revenue and ARR, adding 68 banks globally as it expands R&D (including a Lisbon engineering office) and ramps hiring for 2026. Capital Markets Watch: MercadoLibre shares fell 16% in the first half of 2026 amid declining profits over two straight quarters, even as e-commerce and fintech growth stayed strong. Crypto & Fintech Funding: Binance-backed Mesh is reportedly preparing a new round that could value the crypto payments firm at up to $2bn, as demand rises for stablecoin-to-fiat settlement tools. Trade & Logistics: CMA CGM announced July 2026 peak-season surcharges for routes from the Indian subcontinent and China, with fees aimed at cargo bound for Central America, the Caribbean, and parts of South America. Banking/Regulatory Services: A Mexico-focused legal boutique says it’s expanding advisory work for companies entering or operating in regulated sectors, emphasizing early compliance planning. Energy & Risk: Aon estimates global reinsurer capital hit $790bn in Q1, with Latin America among regions benefiting from improving capacity and returns. Business Expansion: Fred Perry plans new brick-and-mortar and online launches in Argentina and Chile next year, adding to its existing Brazil and Mexico presence. Market Signals: A report on global safes and vaults projects the market to reach $18.7bn by 2032, supported by security and cash-management demand.

Brazil Sanctions Crackdown: Brazil’s Federal Police froze about $2 billion in assets and arrested one person tied to the PCC after the U.S. sanctioned two individuals, accelerating a planned operation. Venezuela Earthquake Fallout: Venezuela’s quake death toll nears 3,000 as rescue efforts wind down and criticism grows over the government’s response, with tens of thousands still unaccounted for. Peru Election Challenge: Peru’s left-wing candidate Roberto Sánchez filed a petition to contest the runoff result after Keiko Fujimori’s razor-thin win, citing issues around digitizing overseas voting records. Fintech IPO Watch: GCash’s IPO pricing is under scrutiny as investors weigh Mynt’s valuation versus peers like Nubank, with the final offer price seen as pivotal. Digital Payments & Retail Sentiment: MercadoLibre remains a focus for investors despite stock weakness this year, as analysts debate whether strong fundamentals justify buying into the pullback. UAE Trade Push in LatAm: A UAE delegation wrapped “UAE Trade Days” across five South American countries, targeting deals in tech, renewables, logistics, mining and financial services. Tourism Momentum: The Dominican Republic logged 6.62 million visitors in the first half of 2026, up 7.7% year-on-year, putting 12 million within reach. Gold Reserves Trend: Central banks kept buying gold in May, adding net 41 tonnes, reinforcing the broader reserve diversification push. Regional Politics Shift: Milei plans to attend the inaugurations of Peru and Colombia’s president-elects, underscoring the region’s rightward political turn.

Gold Reserves: Central banks added a net 41 tonnes of gold in May, led by Poland (18 tonnes) and China (10 tonnes), reinforcing demand for bullion as a strategic reserve. Peru Politics: Keiko Fujimori was declared winner of Peru’s presidential runoff in a razor-thin race, pledging a tough crackdown on organized crime and tougher border measures. Colombia Trade & Food: Former presidential candidate Santiago Botero bought U.S. distributor RPM Food and plans a US$100m push to expand Colombian and Latin American food products across the U.S. Latin America Right Shift: A broader political rightward turn is reshaping the region’s security and policy direction, with elections in Colombia and Peru seen as part of the momentum. Sports Media & Streaming: Brazil’s World Cup viewing is fragmenting as YouTube streamer CazeTV offers free matches, challenging traditional broadcaster Globo. Corporate/Market Watch: MercadoLibre investors are debating a rebound after a ~30% drop even as growth accelerates, especially in Brazil.

Peru’s Right-Wing Shift: Keiko Fujimori was officially declared winner of Peru’s presidential runoff, edging leftist Roberto Sánchez by just under 50,000 votes, and promising a tougher crackdown on organized crime, border militarization and deportations—another sign of Latin America’s security-first turn. Regional Politics & Markets: A separate roundup frames the broader rightward lurch across countries including Colombia, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay and others, with only Mexico, Brazil and Uruguay still outside the trend—important context for investors watching policy direction. Crypto Regulation in Brazil: Brazil’s central bank proposes a 24-hour hold on outbound dollar stablecoin transfers of $10,000+ (with anti-money-laundering checks as the release trigger), adding friction to cross-border flows. Central Bank Gold Demand: The World Gold Council reports central banks bought a net 41 tonnes of gold in May, led by Poland and China, reinforcing gold’s role as a strategic reserve. Corporate/Trade Moves: Former Colombian candidate Santiago Botero’s RPM Food deal backs a $100m plan to expand Latin American food distribution in the U.S. South Africa Auto Investment: Chery took control of Nissan’s Rosslyn plant, targeting an African manufacturing hub and nearly 3,000 jobs.

Peru’s Election Shock: Keiko Fujimori was officially declared president after a razor-thin June 7 runoff, winning 50.135% vs. Roberto Sánchez’s 49.865%—a margin of about 50,000 votes—after weeks of protests and fraud claims; she takes office July 28 and pledges a crackdown on organized crime. Stablecoin Rule in Brazil: Brazil’s central bank proposes a mandatory 24-hour hold on outbound dollar stablecoin transfers of $10,000+ by virtual asset service providers, aiming to slow large exits while keeping smaller retail flows mostly unaffected. Venezuela Earthquake Relief: International response to the June 24 twin quakes is scaling fast, with 51 delegations, 3,660 foreign rescuers, 707 tons of aid, and thousands of local responders mobilized. Brazil Anti–PCC Move: Federal Police froze about $2 billion in assets and carried out arrests tied to U.S.-sanctioned suspects accused of laundering for the PCC. Power Grid Investment: State Grid broke ground on a 1,468-km ultra-high-voltage transmission line to move bundled renewables from Brazil’s northeast to major load centers, targeting full operation by 2029. Crypto Aid via OKX: OKX says it will distribute direct USDT humanitarian credits to Venezuelans in hardest-hit areas like La Guaira. Peru-India Ties: India’s PM Modi congratulated Fujimori and flagged deeper bilateral cooperation. Regional Trade Signal: China reported $57.2B in 2025 trade with Latin America and the Caribbean via Jiangsu province.

Venezuela Disaster & Politics: After twin earthquakes, Venezuela’s response is under fire as UN estimates point to $6.7bn in direct damage and reports of slow rescue access. Opposition Roadblock: Maria Corina Machado’s planned return was derailed mid-flight after U.S. resistance, despite prior landing permissions. Peru Election: Keiko Fujimori was declared president-elect in a razor-thin runoff (50.135% vs 49.865%), with the losing camp alleging fraud and refusing to recognize results—raising near-term political risk for markets. Brazil Crime/Finance: Brazil froze about $2bn in assets tied to PCC money laundering, following U.S. sanctions—another signal of tighter cross-border enforcement. Cybersecurity Expansion: Israeli AI cybersecurity firm Dream plans a Latin America push, betting on tougher, Trump-aligned governments and weak defenses. Payments & Stablecoins: Arival Bank launched stablecoin-based everyday payments via regulated bank partners, aiming at Latin America’s cross-border commerce demand. Tourism Demand Shift: Aruba saw South American arrivals jump 32.6% in Q1, highlighting growing regional travel diversification. Energy/Mining Capex: CoMinVi ordered a 46-unit Sandvik underground fleet for Mexico, with deliveries through 2028. Peru/Trade & Markets: Peru’s political polarization and tight election outcome could affect policy continuity and investor sentiment.

Argentina Corporate Law & AI: President Javier Milei’s push for “non-human corporations” is drawing scrutiny, but lawyers say the proposed “automated company” still requires a human administrator to supervise AI decisions. Defense & Aerospace: A new look at Latin America’s fixed-wing capability gaps points to openings for competition, with Embraer’s C-390 highlighted as a key battleground. Peru–China Port Oversight: A Peruvian court ordered government oversight of the Chinese-owned Chancay port, reviving sovereignty concerns as the US and China compete for influence. Venezuela Earthquakes: The death toll from twin quakes has passed 2,000, with tens of thousands injured and displaced; officials are discussing reconstruction financing and bank credit lines. Remittances & Payments: Cross-border transfers are shifting toward regulated fintech as migration and digital finance adoption grow across major corridors, including North America–Europe–Nigeria. Latin America Investment Pitch: Dominican VP Raquel Peña told the Americas Investment Forum that legal certainty and macro stability helped attract over $5B in FDI in a year. Retail Expansion: H&M’s & Other Stories is set to launch in Mexico this autumn with stores and an online rollout.

Brazil-US Payments Clash: Senator Flavio Bolsonaro wants to block Pix from linking with non-Western cross-border payment networks, arguing it could ease U.S. trade concerns—while Lula calls it an attempt to “hand Pix over to foreign interests.” Peru-China Trade Oversight: A Lima court restored state regulator Ositrán’s authority over China’s Chancay port, ending Cosco’s brief regulatory immunity and reopening scrutiny. Venezuela Air Connectivity: American Airlines adds the only nonstop U.S. flights to Maracaibo from Miami, expanding service beyond Caracas. Crypto Sanctions Watch: U.S. Treasury added 134 crypto wallet addresses tied to ISIS-K, including 131 TRON wallets, and also sanctioned a Brazil-linked PCC laundering network. Latin America Capital Markets: Patria Investments closed its Patria Secondary Opportunities Fund V with $670m+ in commitments, signaling continued appetite for private-market liquidity. Banking Awards: Banco Itaú Colombia and Banco do Brasil both won major “transformation” and corporate/youth banking honors. Tech & Health in the Region: Butterfly Network launched handheld ultrasound availability in Brazil, while Polygon reported 743m transactions in Q2 as stablecoin payments drive growth.

Sovereign Debt Relief Watch: Argentina’s country risk slid to an eight-year low as rating upgrades lifted dollar bond sentiment, with investors now focused on upcoming Bonar bond payments that could further support prices. Venezuela Debt Restructuring: A new look at Venezuela’s quake-hit finances frames debt talks as a massive, high-stakes restructuring challenge, with damage estimates already running into the billions. Disaster Economics: Verisk estimates Venezuela earthquake losses could exceed $10bn, highlighting how sanctions, low insurance penetration, and inflation complicate the insured-hit calculation. Fintech Funding (Colombia): Addi closed an $85m Series D led by Citius and co-led by BTG Pactual, aiming to accelerate its AI-first financial and merchant platform. Digital Banking (Brazil): Nubank says it has already banked 31.5m Brazilians and leads primary institution incidence across 17 states, reinforcing its scale advantage. Trade Policy Shock (North America): The U.S. refused to extend the USMCA in its current form, setting up refreshed talks and a longer period of uncertainty for supply chains. UAE–Argentina Investment Links: UAE Trade Days meetings focused on expanding cooperation in tech, renewables, logistics, and investment partnerships. Energy & Markets: Nigeria gained associate membership in the IEA, a potential signal for investor confidence in its energy trajectory. Crypto Governance: The Ethereum Foundation positioned Ethereum as neutral public digital infrastructure, a branding shift that could influence how regulators treat public blockchains. Venezuela Humanitarian Response: Aid and field-hospital deployments continue as the health system strains under quake aftermath.

Crypto Regulation in Brazil: Brazil’s Federal Revenue Service launched DeCripto, a new system for reporting crypto-asset transactions using the OECD’s CARF standard, with stablecoins making up about 80% of reported trading volume and the tool becoming mandatory this July. Trade Policy Shock for North America: The U.S. declined to renew USMCA in its current form, triggering annual reviews and extending the pact’s life while negotiations drag on—raising uncertainty for autos, agriculture, and supply chains. Colombia’s Political Turn: Colombia elected Abelardo de la Espriella in a tight runoff, with the result framed as a response to insecurity and weak state capacity after Petro’s term. Caribbean Disaster Risk: Caribbean businesses were warned that hurricanes can wipe out ~17% of GDP on average in major-hit years, pushing firms toward stronger business continuity planning. Mexico Football Meets Sanctions Risk: Mexico’s World Cup win over Ecuador was clouded by the return of the “puto” chant, reviving FIFA disciplinary concerns. Security & Finance Pressure on Cartels: The U.S. announced sanctions tied to CJNG fuel theft and a broader Tren de Aragua crackdown, including charges tied to kidnappings and murders. Brazil Circular Economy Push: The Ellen MacArthur Foundation backed a Recife project aiming to unlock €50m+ for collection and recycling systems, targeting a model for national policy.

Mercosur Security Push: Uruguay took over Mercosur’s rotating presidency and vowed to modernize the bloc while leaders agreed on a regional security “architecture” to tackle organized crime, illicit finance, and arms trafficking. USMCA Uncertainty: Mexico said Canada and the US will hold virtual talks to review USMCA on July 1, with Mexico pushing for a 16-year extension or a decade of annual reviews. Venezuela Earthquake Aid: Malta pledged humanitarian funding for Venezuela via the Red Cross network as the quake death toll and missing numbers keep climbing. Crypto in the Spotlight: Open USD, a new dollar-pegged stablecoin backed by major payments, banks, and fintech firms, announced shared governance and fee-free minting/redemption. Cyber Risk for Finance: A study warns hackers can stay inside corporate networks for weeks before detection, with many firms only realizing after data is stolen. Chile Clean Power Deal: Grenergy signed a large battery-backed PPA in Chile, supplying 1 TWh annually for 15 years during non-solar hours. Mexico Retail Expansion: H&M confirmed & Other Stories will launch in Mexico City in October 2026. Drug Smuggling Crackdown: Russia’s FSB seized about 500 kg of cocaine hidden in frozen tuna imported from Ecuador, linking the route to Latin America trafficking networks.

Trade & Diplomacy: Lula pushed Mercosur to start economic partnership talks with China at the bloc’s summit in Paraguay, while also moving ahead with Japan negotiations as he warned against “automatic alignment” and exclusionary choices. Sanctions & Security: The US Treasury hit CJNG-linked fuel theft with sanctions on two Mexican citizens and nine companies, plus a bank alert flagging cross-border smuggling and tax-evasion red flags. Politics & Institutions: Peru’s run-off ended with Keiko Fujimori narrowly winning, with the result hinging on overseas votes, while Colombia’s press freedom concerns grow after Abelardo de la Espriella’s legal harassment record. Disaster & Aid: Venezuela’s earthquake response remains under scrutiny as the death toll tops 1,700 and humanitarian needs surge, with new pledges and relief logistics in motion. Banking/Markets: Nubank is advancing its bid for a Portuguese bank’s Brazil unit, and Brazil capped rates on severance-backed payroll loans. Corporate Finance: Westrock extended $361m of credit maturity to 2028, while Alamos Gold set its Q2 results call for late July. Sports & Consumer Impact: Mexico faces Ecuador in the World Cup Round of 16 test at Estadio Azteca, with the match spotlighting how big games drive spending and risk appetite.

Argentina Debt Desk: Argentina’s economy ministry tapped the local market to raise about $4.2B for a July 9 bondholder payment, selling Bonar 2028 in two rounds and signaling improved confidence as rates eased. Venezuela Earthquake Fallout: After twin quakes, the rescue window is closing and attention is shifting to a long humanitarian crisis, with aid, donations, and questions about state capacity intensifying. World Bank Climate Funding: The World Bank’s climate-financing targets are set to expire today, with no clear replacement as U.S. pressure pushes allies to roll back green commitments. Cybercrime & Cash Machines: The FBI charged four people in an ATM “jackpotting” scheme tied to more than $500,000 stolen across Connecticut. Regional Trade Watch: The U.S. is expected to miss the July 1 deadline to renew CUSMA with Canada and Mexico, starting a longer annual review path instead. Mining & Human Rights: A new report flags rising allegations of abuse in mining, underscoring growing investor and regulatory scrutiny. Digital Finance in Credit: Kueski’s CTO says AI is reshaping credit infrastructure in emerging markets. Payments Upgrade: MAS and ABS are rolling out instant payments enhancements with PayNow Generation 2 in the region. AI Compute Push to LatAm: Nexaryon launched an enterprise AI platform and picked Mexico as a regional hub for data center buildout.